JLL: Summer Storm Clouds Follow Arab Spring
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The road to home finance has been a long one for the Kingdom, but with its highly anticipated mortgage law edging ever closer to ratification, would-be homeowners and financial institutions are gearing up for a new era of opportunity.
With the announcement this year of a US$66.7 billion initiative to address the demand-supply imbalance in the Kingdom’s housing market, social infrastructure spend is topping the Government agenda as it focuses on building affordable homes for the future.
The South-East Asian island has seen a number of distinctive developments come to fruition over the past few years as the country further establishes itself.
The poloitcal and social unrest that has swept accross the MENA region during the 2011 Arab Spring, has confirmed Dubai's role as something of a 'safe haven' within a volatile region.
This has translated into more visitors to Dubai, benefitting the hotel and retail markets, and more investment seeking a home in the Dubai residential sector. While the office market has not witnessed any positive short term impact from the Arab Spring, Dubai continues to cement its place as the preferred business and financial centre within the region.
Concerns over mounting debt issues in both the Eurozone and te US have dented the positive sentiment towards the Dubai real estate market during Q3 2011. The experience of the 2008/9 financial crisis is that Dubai remains closely linked to trends in the global economy and the possibility of mature markets slipping back into recession has resulted in a more cautious approach, with many corporates delaying expansion plans until the global picture becomes somewhat clearer.
There are signs of an early recovery in the Dubai hotel market, while the retail and residential sectors are also showing signs of stability and returning confidence. The office market is still moving in tenants' favour and further declines in rents and prices are expected over the next 6-12 months.
Investor interest and the amount of money seeking a home in the Dubai real estate market has increased during 2011, especially among investors from elsewhere in the GCC region. However, this interest remains tightly focussed on a narrow band of completed, income producing properties, with little or no demand for partially completed or poorly let projects. The ongoing lack of major transactions reflects the shortage of investment grade stock being offered to the market at attractive prices, and this situation shows little sign of changing in the short term.
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